Summer in the Chesapeake means blue crabs. Steamed in Old Bay with a glug of cheap beer thrown in to add flavor, a mountain of crabs piled high on a picnic table gladdens the hearts of all Marylanders. But steamed crabs don’t come cheap—and the earlier in the summer you buy them, the more expensive they are. Locals know that the best time to supply their crab feast is later in the season. Biding your time until high summer when the crab population is booming means there’s less demand and the crabs are cheaper (and fatter).
It turns out, the housing market on the Eastern Shore isn’t that different. During the pandemic buying frenzy, prices were high, competition was stiff, and inventory was low. But just like holding out for those teeming river crabs of high summer, folks who have waited until now to buy their home are benefiting from a renewed supply and shifting market.
On the Eastern Shore, we’re seeing more homes hitting the market. In Kent, Queen Anne’s & Talbot counties, houses that might have attracted a dozen offers are now getting a handful or less. Sometimes a strong offer right away is all it takes. The last 4 homes I listed were all under contract within a week and were for asking or above. They all got good offers right away.
This is part of a national trend. According to Redfin and Realtor.com, in May 2022, 1 in 5 sellers had dropped their asking price, and pending home sales posted their largest decline since the Spring of 2020. Mortgage application activity for new homes or refinancing was down 14% from a year ago.
This is all good news for homebuyers. And despite the fact that the national median price of a single family home shot up 17% year over year to $412,450, these greater shifts in the real estate market should help stabilize home prices. You can expect to see affordability improve—great news for all homebuyers and especially those who have been waiting for less competition as they searched for their first home.
But not everything has downward momentum. 30 year rates are now averaging in the upper 5% range. That said, the shift is not a collapse. Rising rates are cooling the market but are nowhere near the high rates in the 1980’s & 1990’s. And at the end of the day, it shouldn’t stop you from buying the house you want.
My rule of thumb is “Marry the house; date the rate.” You don’t have to commit to the financing available now forever. Smart homeowners always look for a better financing opportunity, and make the move when the time is right. You can always change your financing to more favorable terms later, should better rates and products become available. And if rates only get worse, then you'll be glad you married the house when you did. With my own homes, we’ve “dated” around for a better rate several times, and ultimately re-financed our first home once and our second home twice.
So be like the locals with summertime blue crabs. Patience can pay off in a picnic table piled high, but if you dawdle, you might miss the crabbing season altogether. Now that home options are running high, it’s a great time to buy the house you need, whether it’s for a growing family, downsizing, retirement, or a career change. Wait too long, and that home you’ve been dreaming about might be a crab in someone else’s basket.
